Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) — Reincorporation detail

Announcement

2025-05-12

First SEC disclosure

Meeting / Vote

2025-06-25

COMPLETED

Effective

2025-07-01

Legal effective date

Market Cap

$22.2B

At announcement

Why this firm matters

Mid-to-large-cap firm ($22.2B) with sufficient market depth for reliable event-study identification.

Controller & ownership

Diffuse / non-controlledFounder Significant Minority

Max Levchin (Founder/Chairman/CEO, via Class B 15:1 supervoting — sub-50%) holds approximately 44.8% of voting power. No single holder reaches the controlled-company threshold (>50% of voting power).

Source: AFRM 2025 DEF 14A (December 2025 annual meeting, accession 0001628280-25-046264) — Max Levchin beneficially owns 5,097,053 Class A shares (1.78% of Class A) plus 26,485,472 Class B shares (64.96% of Class B); Class B carries 15 votes/share; combined voting power 44.84%. Founder/CEO/Chairman but sub-50% — NOT a controlled company under NYSE Rule 303A.00 (prior tracker entry of ~57% was an arithmetic overstatement; corrected 2026-05-19 via Tier-3 overnight reviewer dispatch + Tier-2 primary-source verification).

Vote outcome — reincorporation proposal

Approval standard: majority of votes cast (provisional — pincite pending). Meeting type: annual.

For

675,200,000

Against

124,900,000

84.39% approval (For ÷ (For + Against))

Event-study abnormal returns — announcement window

Returns around the announcement date.

Event date: 2025-05-08 · Estimation window: 2024-05-22 to 2025-05-07 (240 days)

Specification	Day-0 AR	Inference
Synthetic control (10-donor Financials peer pool)i	+3.14%	no inference
Market model (SPY benchmark)i	+3.39%	Patell-z p-value = 0.447
Sector-augmented model (SPY + Bank sector ETF (KBE)) HEADLINEi	+2.12%	Patell-z p-value = 0.617
Matched pair (vs SOFI, market-model-adjusted)i	+3.21%	two-sided p-value = 0.539
Raw differential vs SOFIi	+3.36%	no inference

Robustness checks — does the headline result hold up?

Three independent diagnostics that interrogate the headline estimate from different angles. All three pointing the same way = high confidence in the result.

Pre-event drift check: the firm's daily abnormal return drifted by -0.0014% per day in the pre-event window (p = 0.774). no detectable pre-event drift âœ“. — A near-zero slope means the pre-event period was stable, so the day-0 reaction is not contamination from a pre-existing trend.
Donor co-movement check: 9 of 10 peer firms moved in the same direction as the treated firm on the event day (binomial p = 0.0215). — A high concordance means the day was driven by industry-wide news rather than something firm-specific. A low concordance means the firm moved differently from peers (potential firm-specific signal).
Synthetic-control fit quality: pre-event correlation between the firm and its synthetic twin = 0.931 (tight tracking); RÂ² = 0.862 (fraction of pre-event variance explained); Durbin-Watson = 1.83 (no autocorrelation). — Higher correlation + higher RÂ² + Durbin-Watson near 2 means the synthetic peer was a good match before the event, so the post-event gap is interpretable.

Event-study abnormal returns — vote window

Returns around the shareholder-vote (or written-consent) date.

Event date: 2025-07-01 · T0 source: actual_effective_date_iso · Estimation window: trailing 240 days; 240 valid after NaN drop

Specification	Day-0 AR	Inference
Market model (SPY benchmark) HEADLINEi	-3.20%	Patell-z p-value = 0.465

Long-run abnormal returns & pooled estimates

Buy-and-hold abnormal returns (1 / 3 / 6 / 12 months) and calendar-time portfolio alpha (CTE) post-effective.

Effective date: 2025-07-01 · n_post = 209 days

Buy-and-hold abnormal returns (BHAR)

Horizon & benchmark	BHAR	Inference
1 month vs S&P 500	-0.16%	Patell-z = -0.35 · p = 0.725 · n = 21 days
1 month vs sector ETF (XLF)	+2.73%	Patell-z = -0.35 · p = 0.725 · n = 21 days
3 months vs S&P 500	+0.76%	Patell-z = -0.61 · p = 0.540 · n = 63 days
3 months vs sector ETF (XLF)	+6.28%	Patell-z = -0.61 · p = 0.540 · n = 63 days
6 months vs S&P 500	+1.17%	Patell-z = -0.74 · p = 0.459 · n = 126 days
6 months vs sector ETF (XLF)	+7.54%	Patell-z = -0.74 · p = 0.459 · n = 126 days

Calendar-time portfolio alpha (CTE)

Specification	Annualized alpha	Inference
Calendar-time portfolio alpha vs S&P 500	-43.49%/yr	t = -1.05 · p = 0.293 · n = 209 days · Newey-West HAC SE (lag=5)
Calendar-time portfolio alpha vs sector ETF	-5.46%/yr	t = -0.10 · p = 0.918 · n = 209 days · Newey-West HAC SE (lag=5)

Cohort-level robustness battery

Heckman selection-corrected ATE · Romano-Wolf step-down + BH FDR · pooled BHAR. This firm's reading is shown in context of the full cohort.

Heckman two-step selection correction (controlled-vs-widely-held)

Cohort ATE = +0.94% (SE = 7.06%, n = 2395) after correcting for controller-status selection (inverse Mills ratio = -0.062).

Romano-Wolf step-down + Benjamini-Hochberg FDR (n = 47)

This firm: raw p = 0.617, Romano-Wolf adjusted p = 1.000, BH-FDR adjusted p = 0.966. Multiple-hypothesis correction is computed across the full cohort to control family-wise error rate at alpha = 0.05.

Pooled cohort BHAR (mover firms only)

BHAR_63d: mean = -5.60% (SE = 22.11%, n = 3, p = 0.499) · BHAR_126d: mean = +17.33% (SE = 41.17%, n = 3, p = 0.774)

See Cohort event study → for the full battery and forest plots.

Nevada Statutory Disclosures

Nevada Revised Statutes (NRS) governance provisions relevant to Delaware→Nevada redomestications. Five sections summarized; each links to the Nevada Legislature’s authoritative NRS text. Counterpart to the Texas § 21.552 / § 21.373 panel for TX-destination firms.

NRS § 78.138 — Director / officer fiduciary duty

Codifies the business-judgment rule and limits monetary liability of directors and officers absent breach of loyalty, intentional misconduct, fraud, or knowing violation of law. Stronger statutory shield than DGCL § 102(b)(7) on its face; charter opt-out / carve-out is firm-specific.

PENDING VERIFICATION

Adoption with carve-out by Affirm Holdings, Inc.: primary-source verification pending; canonical record not yet populated.

NRS § 78.7502 — Indemnification of directors / officers

Broad permissive indemnification statute; covers expenses, judgments, fines, and amounts paid in settlement for any action by reason of service as director or officer, subject to good-faith standard. Charter / bylaw uptake is firm-specific.

PENDING VERIFICATION

Affirm Holdings, Inc. indemnification provisions pending charter / bylaw extraction.

NRS §§ 78.378–3793 — Acquisition of controlling interest

Nevada's control-share acquisition statute (anti-takeover): voting rights of shares acquired in a “control-share acquisition” are extinguished absent disinterested-shareholder approval. Opt-out is by charter or bylaw amendment; default is opt-in for Nevada corporations meeting the statute's coverage thresholds.

PENDING VERIFICATION

Affirm Holdings, Inc. opt-in / opt-out status pending charter or bylaw verification.

NRS §§ 78.411–444 — Combinations with interested stockholders

Nevada's business-combination statute (anti-takeover): for two years post-acquisition, a Nevada corporation may not engage in a “combination” with a 10%+ interested stockholder unless the board pre-approved the transaction. Charter opt-out available.

PENDING VERIFICATION

Affirm Holdings, Inc. opt-in / opt-out status pending charter verification.

NRS § 92A.135 — Conversion mechanism (DGCL § 266 analog)

Authorizes conversion of a foreign business entity into a Nevada domestic entity by filing articles of conversion. The Nevada analog to DGCL § 266 (Delaware) and TBOC §§ 10.101–108 (Texas). Where used, the firm's redomestication is a true legal-entity conversion rather than a reverse-triangular merger.

PENDING VERIFICATION

Mechanism (§ 92A.135 conversion vs. merger-with-NV-sub) pending primary-source verification.

Primary-source pending. Where badges read “PENDING VERIFICATION,” the firm-specific adoption posture (e.g., charter carve-outs to NRS § 78.138, opt-outs from NRS §§ 78.378–3793 or 78.411–444) has not yet been extracted from the firm’s amended-and-restated articles or proxy materials. The presence of a Nevada incorporation alone does not establish adoption of every provision; opt-outs are charter-level facts.

Source filings

Primary-source documents on SEC EDGAR plus IR / search links.

IR — https://investors.affirm.com/
EDGAR — https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001820953&type=&dateb=&owner=include&count=40
Proxy — https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001820953&type=DEF+14A&dateb=&owner=include&count=40
8-K Item 5.07 (vote) · 0001820953-25-000064 — filing →
First SEC disclosure · 0001820953-25-000057 — filing →

Classification & audit trail

Bucket

Panel eligibility

PANEL_A_post_SB29

Audit status

VERIFIED_PROXY | PATCHED_v6-rev77_2026-05-24_wave1b_audit_fixes: per firm_roster_audit_2026-05-24.md + batch summaries

Source confidence

VERIFIED_VOTE

Transaction status

COMPLETED

Audit notes

No primary-source EDGAR accession in v6 rev78; manual EDGAR pull required.
Phase 2 EDGAR verification 2026-04-28: DEF 14A 2025-10-24 accession 0001628280-25-046264. Reclassified from A/PANEL_E_DE_baseline -> D/PANEL_A_post_SB29.
Phase 2.6 correction 2026-04-27: Phase 2.5 had set bucket_class=D (pending), but legacy NV_eff_dt / TX_eff_dt columns already held completed effective dates. Corrected bucket_class=C (post-SB29 completed mover). Set Panel_A_reincorporator_flag=1, Panel_A_completed_effective_flag=1, bucket_C_post_SB29_DExit=1, and zeroed out bucket_A / bucket_Z / Panel_A_unverified flags.
Phase 3F: cleared future meeting_date_iso=2026-06-26 — firm already moved (eff_date=2025-06-26); the future date was the next annual meeting at the new domicile, not the reincorporation vote.
Phase 3F vote-result inferred APPROVED from status=COMPLETED + populated eff date (2025-06-26). Original vote_result was 'SCHEDULED'. Verify with 8-K if uncertain.
[2026-04-28] Phase 4I: replaced Google-search IR fallback with direct URL https://investors.affirm.com/
[2026-04-28] Phase 4K: corrected year error (announcement 2026-04-24 -> 2025-05-08). Vote 2025-06-25 special meeting; eff 2025-07-01 12:01am PT. Vote totals: For 675.2M (84.3%) / Against 124.9M; voting power present 89.62%.
[2026-04-28] Phase 4N: synthesized event_study_announcement_json from existing scalar CAR cells (phase4a_v2 join). Reviewer can extend with multi-spec analysis. [2026-04-28] phase5c: vote source 8-K 0001820953-25-000064 (2025-06-26, Δ=1d) applied from EDGAR pull (status=AUTO_RESOLVED) [2026-04-28] phase5c: vote source 8-K 0001820953-25-000064 (2025-06-26, Δ=1d) applied from EDGAR pull (status=AUTO_RESOLVED) [2026-04-29] phase5r: bucket 'C' -> 'B2' (DE->NV effective 2025-07-01 >= SB29 -> bucket B2) [2026-04-29] phase5t: row independently validated by external Reviewer A; bucket and key dates match current dataset (v3.55) [2026-04-29] phase5u: row independently validated by external Reviewer (full-residual pass, 78/276 substantive answers); validations applied: V_DATE_ANN=CONFIRM; V_DATE_EFF=CONFIRM; V_BUCKET=WRONG=B2; primary-source URLs all under https://www.sec.gov/Archives/ [2026-04-29] phase5v: row independently re-validated by external Reviewer (Round 4 full-residual pass, 85/276 substantive); all bucket and pending-status conclusions match v3.57 [2026-04-29] phase5w: comprehensive validation by external reviewer across tranches v4 (4-version full residual walk, 269 substantive answers across 52 firms, 0 bucket drifts vs v3.58)
[2026-04-29] v3.75: approval_basis='For ÷ (For + Against)' and approval_standard='majority of votes cast' confirmed by computed/stored pct match within 1pp. Pincite verification pending.
[2026-04-29] v3.75: math match: stored 84.39% = computed For/(For+Against) within 0.01pp. Tally per 8-K Item 5.07 (acc 0001820953-25-000017). Standard label provisional pending exact 8-K Item 5.07 quote.
v3.84-rev2 MINOR date correction (provisional): announcement_date_iso changed from 2025-05-08 to 2025-05-12. May 8 was board-approval date; DEF 14A filed May 12, 2025. PRE 14A verification still pending.
v3.84-rev5 [2026-04-30] cell-audit reconciliation verified: DEF 14A filing date (source_type=DEF14A, quality=HIGH).