Why this firm matters
Standard cohort firm (Completed). Included for breadth across destinations and sectors.
Vote outcome — reincorporation proposal
Vote totals not yet pulled. Awaiting EDGAR Item 5.07.
Event-study abnormal returns — announcement window
| Specification | Day-0 AR | Inference |
|---|---|---|
| Synthetic control (19-donor Consumer Discretionary peer pool)i | -4.40% | no inference |
| Market model (SPY benchmark)i | -4.74% | Patell-z p-value = 0.800 |
| Sector-augmented model (SPY + Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY)) HEADLINEi | -5.24% | Patell-z p-value = 0.779 |
| Matched pair (vs SBUX, market-model-adjusted)i | -5.28% | two-sided p-value = 0.778 |
| Raw differential vs SBUXi | -4.79% | no inference |
Three independent diagnostics that interrogate the headline estimate from different angles. All three pointing the same way = high confidence in the result.
- Pre-event drift check: the firm's daily abnormal return drifted by +0.0196% per day in the pre-event window (p = 0.258). no detectable pre-event drift ✓. — A near-zero slope means the pre-event period was stable, so the day-0 reaction is not contamination from a pre-existing trend.
- Donor co-movement check: 10 of 19 peer firms moved in the same direction as the treated firm on the event day (binomial p = 1.0000). — A high concordance means the day was driven by industry-wide news rather than something firm-specific. A low concordance means the firm moved differently from peers (potential firm-specific signal).
- Synthetic-control fit quality: pre-event correlation between the firm and its synthetic twin = 0.216 (weak tracking — interpret with caution); R² = -0.867 (fraction of pre-event variance explained); Durbin-Watson = 2.14 (no autocorrelation). — Higher correlation + higher R² + Durbin-Watson near 2 means the synthetic peer was a good match before the event, so the post-event gap is interpretable.
Event-study abnormal returns — vote window
| Specification | Day-0 AR | Inference |
|---|---|---|
| Market model (SPY benchmark) HEADLINEi | -2.20% | Patell-z p-value = 0.902 |
Long-run abnormal returns & pooled estimates
Buy-and-hold abnormal returns (BHAR)
| Horizon & benchmark | BHAR | Inference |
|---|---|---|
| 1 month vs S&P 500 | +1.86% | Patell-z = +0.17 · p = 0.869 · n = 21 days |
| 1 month vs sector ETF (XLY) | -2.73% | Patell-z = +0.17 · p = 0.869 · n = 21 days |
| 3 months vs S&P 500 | -9.38% | Patell-z = +0.12 · p = 0.901 · n = 63 days |
| 3 months vs sector ETF (XLY) | -8.50% | Patell-z = +0.12 · p = 0.901 · n = 63 days |
Calendar-time portfolio alpha (CTE)
| Specification | Annualized alpha | Inference |
|---|---|---|
| Calendar-time portfolio alpha vs S&P 500 | -74.65%/yr | t = -0.91 · p = 0.365 · n = 113 days · Newey-West HAC SE (lag=5) |
| Calendar-time portfolio alpha vs sector ETF | -68.72%/yr | t = -0.80 · p = 0.426 · n = 113 days · Newey-West HAC SE (lag=5) |
Cohort-level robustness battery
Heckman two-step selection correction (controlled-vs-widely-held)
Cohort ATE = +0.94% (SE = 7.06%, n = 2395) after correcting for controller-status selection (inverse Mills ratio = -0.062).
Romano-Wolf step-down + Benjamini-Hochberg FDR (n = 47)
This firm: raw p = 0.779, Romano-Wolf adjusted p = 1.000, BH-FDR adjusted p = 0.966. Multiple-hypothesis correction is computed across the full cohort to control family-wise error rate at alpha = 0.05.
Pooled cohort BHAR (mover firms only)
BHAR_63d: mean = -5.60% (SE = 22.11%, n = 3, p = 0.499) · BHAR_126d: mean = +17.33% (SE = 41.17%, n = 3, p = 0.774)
See Cohort event study → for the full battery and forest plots.
Nevada Statutory Disclosures
Primary-source pending. Where badges read “PENDING VERIFICATION,” the firm-specific adoption posture (e.g., charter carve-outs to NRS § 78.138, opt-outs from NRS §§ 78.378–3793 or 78.411–444) has not yet been extracted from the firm’s amended-and-restated articles or proxy materials. The presence of a Nevada incorporation alone does not establish adoption of every provision; opt-outs are charter-level facts.
Source filings
- IR — https://hwhintl.com/investors
- EDGAR — https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001897245&type=&dateb=&owner=include&count=40
- Proxy — https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001897245&type=DEF+14A&dateb=&owner=include&count=40
- 8-K Item 5.07 (vote) ·
0001493152-25-023208— filing →
Classification & audit trail
Phase 2 EDGAR verification 2026-04-28: DEF 14A 2025-10-09 accession 0001493152-25-017601. Reclassified from A/PANEL_E_DE_baseline -> D/PANEL_A_post_SB29.
Phase 2.6 correction 2026-04-27: Phase 2.5 had set bucket_class=D (pending), but legacy NV_eff_dt / TX_eff_dt columns already held completed effective dates. Corrected bucket_class=C (post-SB29 completed mover). Set Panel_A_reincorporator_flag=1, Panel_A_completed_effective_flag=1, bucket_C_post_SB29_DExit=1, and zeroed out bucket_A / bucket_Z / Panel_A_unverified flags.
Phase 3F: cleared future meeting_date_iso=2026-05-15 — firm already moved (eff_date=2025-11-20); the future date was the next annual meeting at the new domicile, not the reincorporation vote.
Phase 3F vote-result inferred APPROVED from status=COMPLETED + populated eff date (2025-11-20). Original vote_result was 'SCHEDULED'. Verify with 8-K if uncertain.
[2026-04-28] Phase 4I: replaced Google-search IR fallback with direct URL https://hwhintl.com/investors
[2026-04-28] Phase 4K: corrected year error and mechanism. Written consent of majority stockholders 2025-10-10; merger agreement 2025-11-12; eff 2025-11-14 11:00pm ET via parent-subsidiary merger (not direct conversion). Tiny-cap (~$48M) Korean-American holding.
[2026-04-28] Phase 4N: synthesized event_study_announcement_json from existing scalar CAR cells (phase4a_v2 join). Reviewer can extend with multi-spec analysis. [2026-04-28] phase5c: vote source 8-K 0001493152-25-024461 (2025-11-20, Δ=41d) applied from EDGAR pull (status=AUTO_RESOLVED) [2026-04-28] phase5c: vote source 8-K 0001493152-25-024461 (2025-11-20, Δ=41d) applied from EDGAR pull (status=AUTO_RESOLVED) [2026-04-29] phase5r: bucket 'C' -> 'B2' (DE->NV effective 2025-11-14 >= SB29 -> bucket B2) [2026-04-29] phase5w: comprehensive validation by external reviewer across tranches v3 (4-version full residual walk, 269 substantive answers across 52 firms, 0 bucket drifts vs v3.58)
[2026-04-29] v3.75: written-consent transaction; approval_pct NULL by design per protocol §3.7. Standard derived from DGCL §228. Per-firm consent threshold pincite pending PRE 14C / 8-K review.
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