Why this firm matters
Standard cohort firm (Completed). Included for breadth across destinations and sectors.
Controller & ownership
CONTROLLED COMPANYFamily Supervoting ClassDolan family (via Class B 10:1 supervoting) holds approximately 64.0% of voting power. This firm meets the strict listing-rule controlled-company threshold (controller holds >50% of voting power per NYSE Rule 303A.00 / Nasdaq Rule 5615(c)).
Source: MSGE 2025 special proxy Beneficial Ownership table (accession 0001952073-25-000016) — Dolan Family Group holds 1,483,193 Class A + 6,866,754 Class B (100% of Class B); 40,364,953 Class A and 6,866,754 Class B outstanding (Oct 17, 2025 record date); Class B carries 10 votes/share; combined voting power (1,483,193 + 6,866,754×10) / (40,364,953 + 6,866,754×10) = 70,150,733 / 109,032,493 = 64.0%. Economic interest ~17.8%. Tracker's prior ~71% ESTIMATED figure was drawn from stale 2021-2023 data, before MSGE's Class A grew via MSGN merger and subsequent dilution. Corrected 2026-05-19 via Tier-3 overnight reviewer dispatch.
Vote outcome — reincorporation proposal
Event-study abnormal returns — announcement window
| Specification | Day-0 AR | Inference |
|---|---|---|
| Synthetic control (19-donor Consumer Discretionary peer pool)i | -1.36% | no inference |
| Market model (SPY benchmark)i | -1.25% | Patell-z p-value = 0.489 |
| Sector-augmented model (SPY + Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY)) HEADLINEi | -1.27% | Patell-z p-value = 0.479 |
| Matched pair (vs HLT, market-model-adjusted)i | -1.18% | two-sided p-value = 0.572 |
| Raw differential vs HLTi | -1.27% | no inference |
Three independent diagnostics that interrogate the headline estimate from different angles. All three pointing the same way = high confidence in the result.
- Pre-event drift check: the firm's daily abnormal return drifted by +0.0004% per day in the pre-event window (p = 0.842). no detectable pre-event drift ✓. — A near-zero slope means the pre-event period was stable, so the day-0 reaction is not contamination from a pre-existing trend.
- Donor co-movement check: 7 of 19 peer firms moved in the same direction as the treated firm on the event day (binomial p = 0.3593). — A high concordance means the day was driven by industry-wide news rather than something firm-specific. A low concordance means the firm moved differently from peers (potential firm-specific signal).
- Synthetic-control fit quality: pre-event correlation between the firm and its synthetic twin = 0.087 (weak tracking — interpret with caution); R² = -1.823 (fraction of pre-event variance explained); Durbin-Watson = 1.84 (no autocorrelation). — Higher correlation + higher R² + Durbin-Watson near 2 means the synthetic peer was a good match before the event, so the post-event gap is interpretable.
Event-study abnormal returns — vote window
| Specification | Day-0 AR | Inference |
|---|---|---|
| Market model (SPY benchmark) HEADLINEi | -1.65% | Patell-z p-value = 0.354 |
Long-run abnormal returns & pooled estimates
Buy-and-hold abnormal returns (BHAR)
| Horizon & benchmark | BHAR | Inference |
|---|---|---|
| 1 month vs S&P 500 | +1.01% | Patell-z = +0.33 · p = 0.744 · n = 21 days |
| 1 month vs sector ETF (XLY) | +2.19% | Patell-z = +0.33 · p = 0.744 · n = 21 days |
| 3 months vs S&P 500 | +4.93% | Patell-z = +0.65 · p = 0.513 · n = 63 days |
| 3 months vs sector ETF (XLY) | +5.57% | Patell-z = +0.65 · p = 0.513 · n = 63 days |
| 6 months vs S&P 500 | +26.60% | Patell-z = +1.51 · p = 0.130 · n = 126 days |
| 6 months vs sector ETF (XLY) | +31.06% | Patell-z = +1.51 · p = 0.130 · n = 126 days |
Calendar-time portfolio alpha (CTE)
| Specification | Annualized alpha | Inference |
|---|---|---|
| Calendar-time portfolio alpha vs S&P 500 | +55.70%/yr | t = +1.52 · p = 0.128 · n = 223 days · Newey-West HAC SE (lag=5) |
| Calendar-time portfolio alpha vs sector ETF | +77.83%/yr *** | t = +2.00 · p = 0.046 · n = 223 days · Newey-West HAC SE (lag=5) |
Cohort-level robustness battery
Heckman two-step selection correction (controlled-vs-widely-held)
Cohort ATE = +0.94% (SE = 7.06%, n = 2395) after correcting for controller-status selection (inverse Mills ratio = -0.062).
Romano-Wolf step-down + Benjamini-Hochberg FDR (n = 47)
This firm: raw p = 0.479, Romano-Wolf adjusted p = 1.000, BH-FDR adjusted p = 0.966. Multiple-hypothesis correction is computed across the full cohort to control family-wise error rate at alpha = 0.05.
Pooled cohort BHAR (mover firms only)
BHAR_63d: mean = -5.60% (SE = 22.11%, n = 3, p = 0.499) · BHAR_126d: mean = +17.33% (SE = 41.17%, n = 3, p = 0.774)
See Cohort event study → for the full battery and forest plots.
Nevada Statutory Disclosures
Primary-source pending. Where badges read “PENDING VERIFICATION,” the firm-specific adoption posture (e.g., charter carve-outs to NRS § 78.138, opt-outs from NRS §§ 78.378–3793 or 78.411–444) has not yet been extracted from the firm’s amended-and-restated articles or proxy materials. The presence of a Nevada incorporation alone does not establish adoption of every provision; opt-outs are charter-level facts.
Source filings
- IR — https://investor.msgentertainment.com/
- EDGAR — https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001952073&type=&dateb=&owner=include&count=40
- Proxy — https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001952073&type=DEF+14A&dateb=&owner=include&count=40
- 8-K Item 5.07 (vote) ·
0001193125-25-138468— filing →
Classification & audit trail
Phase 3M 2026-04-27: cleared NV/TX/unified eff dates — RUMORED status means no SEC filing exists; prior dates were inferred from press chatter.
[2026-04-28] Phase 4J reviewer-converged correction: MSGE flipped RUMORED -> COMPLETED. Vote 2025-06-09 (Item 5.07): For 86,439,289 / Against 17,470,373 / Abstain 5,668. Effective 2025-06-09 (Item 5.03). Exchange corrected to NYSE. Reclassified bucket B (pre-SB29; SB29 effective 2025-09-01).
[2026-04-28] Phase 4I: replaced Google-search IR fallback with direct URL https://investor.msgentertainment.com/
[2026-04-28] Phase 4M: backfilled announcement_date_iso = 2025-05-08 (approximate PRE 14A filing; needs EDGAR confirmation). Phase 4J set meeting and effective dates only.
[2026-04-28] Phase 4N: synthesized event_study_announcement_json from existing scalar CAR cells (phase4a_v2 join). Reviewer can extend with multi-spec analysis.
[2026-04-28] Phase 4Q (v3.30 audit follow-up): cleared stale RUMORED_NO_FILING labels. Vote 2025-06-09 verified (For 86,439,289 / Against 17,470,373 / Abstain 5,668); source_confidence -> VERIFIED_VOTE; audit_status -> VERIFIED. [2026-04-28] phase5c: vote source 8-K 0001193125-25-138468 (2025-06-10, Δ=1d) applied from EDGAR pull (status=AUTO_RESOLVED) [2026-04-28] phase5c: vote source 8-K 0001193125-25-138468 (2025-06-10, Δ=1d) applied from EDGAR pull (status=AUTO_RESOLVED) [2026-04-29] phase5r: bucket 'B' -> 'B2' (DE->NV effective 2025-06-09 >= SB29 -> bucket B2) [2026-04-29] phase5s: MSGE actual_effective_date_iso 2025-06-09 -> 2025-06-10 (1-day correction); source: 10-K acc 0001636519-25-000027 (msgs-20250630.htm) text: 'completed its conversion from a corporation organized under the laws of the State of Delaware to a corporation organized under the laws of the State of Nevada on June 10, 2025' [2026-04-29] phase5w: comprehensive validation by external reviewer across tranches v3 (4-version full residual walk, 269 substantive answers across 52 firms, 0 bucket drifts vs v3.58)
[2026-04-29] v3.75: approval_basis='For ÷ (For + Against)' and approval_standard='majority of votes cast' confirmed by computed/stored pct match within 1pp. Pincite verification pending.
[2026-04-29] v3.75: VERIFIED tally — 86,439,289 for / 17,470,373 against / 5,668 abstain. Class A + Class B (30:1) dual-class voting. Standard label provisional pending DEF 14A pincite review.
[2026-04-30] v3.84-rev5q: Sev-1 audit fix per Computer (Perplexity) audit: panel_eligibility PANEL_B_pre_SB29 -> PANEL_B_post_SB29 (effective_date_iso 2025-06-10 is after TX SB 29 effective 2025-05-14, consistent with bucket=B2). Per Computer (Perplexity) audit 2026-04-30.
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