Why this firm matters
Standard cohort firm (Completed). Included for breadth across destinations and sectors.
Controller & ownership
CONTROLLED COMPANYFamily Supervoting ClassDolan family (via Class B 10:1 supervoting) holds approximately 71.1% of voting power. This firm meets the strict listing-rule controlled-company threshold (controller holds >50% of voting power per NYSE Rule 303A.00 / Nasdaq Rule 5615(c)).
Source: MSGS 2025 Proxy Statement — Dolan Family Group holds 100% of Class B (10 votes/share) = 71.1% voting power / 21.6% economic interest; can elect all Class B directors regardless of Class A vote
Vote outcome — reincorporation proposal
Event-study abnormal returns — announcement window
| Specification | Day-0 AR | Inference |
|---|---|---|
| Synthetic control (19-donor Consumer Discretionary peer pool)i | +0.29% | no inference |
| Market model (SPY benchmark)i | -0.15% | Patell-z p-value = 0.884 |
| Sector-augmented model (SPY + Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY)) HEADLINEi | -0.19% | Patell-z p-value = 0.851 |
| Matched pair (vs MCD, market-model-adjusted)i | +1.56% | two-sided p-value = 0.337 |
| Raw differential vs MCDi | +1.77% | no inference |
Three independent diagnostics that interrogate the headline estimate from different angles. All three pointing the same way = high confidence in the result.
- Pre-event drift check: the firm's daily abnormal return drifted by -0.0017% per day in the pre-event window (p = 0.175). no detectable pre-event drift ✓. — A near-zero slope means the pre-event period was stable, so the day-0 reaction is not contamination from a pre-existing trend.
- Donor co-movement check: 11 of 19 peer firms moved in the same direction as the treated firm on the event day (binomial p = 0.6476). — A high concordance means the day was driven by industry-wide news rather than something firm-specific. A low concordance means the firm moved differently from peers (potential firm-specific signal).
- Synthetic-control fit quality: pre-event correlation between the firm and its synthetic twin = 0.547 (modest tracking); R² = -0.091 (fraction of pre-event variance explained); Durbin-Watson = 1.80 (no autocorrelation). — Higher correlation + higher R² + Durbin-Watson near 2 means the synthetic peer was a good match before the event, so the post-event gap is interpretable.
Event-study abnormal returns — vote window
| Specification | Day-0 AR | Inference |
|---|---|---|
| Market model (SPY benchmark) HEADLINEi | +0.84% | Patell-z p-value = 0.404 |
Long-run abnormal returns & pooled estimates
Buy-and-hold abnormal returns (BHAR)
| Horizon & benchmark | BHAR | Inference |
|---|---|---|
| 1 month vs S&P 500 | +3.37% | Patell-z = +1.10 · p = 0.273 · n = 21 days |
| 1 month vs sector ETF (XLY) | +4.55% | Patell-z = +1.10 · p = 0.273 · n = 21 days |
| 3 months vs S&P 500 | -1.70% | Patell-z = +0.41 · p = 0.682 · n = 63 days |
| 3 months vs sector ETF (XLY) | -1.06% | Patell-z = +0.41 · p = 0.682 · n = 63 days |
| 6 months vs S&P 500 | +3.58% | Patell-z = +1.04 · p = 0.300 · n = 126 days |
| 6 months vs sector ETF (XLY) | +8.04% | Patell-z = +1.04 · p = 0.300 · n = 126 days |
Calendar-time portfolio alpha (CTE)
| Specification | Annualized alpha | Inference |
|---|---|---|
| Calendar-time portfolio alpha vs S&P 500 | +66.29%/yr * | t = +1.84 · p = 0.065 · n = 223 days · Newey-West HAC SE (lag=5) |
| Calendar-time portfolio alpha vs sector ETF | +82.23%/yr *** | t = +2.21 · p = 0.027 · n = 223 days · Newey-West HAC SE (lag=5) |
Cohort-level robustness battery
Heckman two-step selection correction (controlled-vs-widely-held)
Cohort ATE = +0.94% (SE = 7.06%, n = 2395) after correcting for controller-status selection (inverse Mills ratio = -0.062).
Romano-Wolf step-down + Benjamini-Hochberg FDR (n = 47)
This firm: raw p = 0.851, Romano-Wolf adjusted p = 1.000, BH-FDR adjusted p = 0.966. Multiple-hypothesis correction is computed across the full cohort to control family-wise error rate at alpha = 0.05.
Pooled cohort BHAR (mover firms only)
BHAR_63d: mean = -5.60% (SE = 22.11%, n = 3, p = 0.499) · BHAR_126d: mean = +17.33% (SE = 41.17%, n = 3, p = 0.774)
See Cohort event study → for the full battery and forest plots.
Nevada Statutory Disclosures
Primary-source pending. Where badges read “PENDING VERIFICATION,” the firm-specific adoption posture (e.g., charter carve-outs to NRS § 78.138, opt-outs from NRS §§ 78.378–3793 or 78.411–444) has not yet been extracted from the firm’s amended-and-restated articles or proxy materials. The presence of a Nevada incorporation alone does not establish adoption of every provision; opt-outs are charter-level facts.
Source filings
- IR — https://investor.msgsports.com/
- EDGAR — https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001636519&type=&dateb=&owner=include&count=40
- Proxy — https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001636519&type=DEF+14A&dateb=&owner=include&count=40
- 8-K Item 5.07 (vote) ·
0001193125-25-139151— filing →
Classification & audit trail
Phase 3M 2026-04-27: cleared NV/TX/unified eff dates — RUMORED status means no SEC filing exists; prior dates were inferred from press chatter.
[2026-04-28] Phase 4J reviewer-converged correction: MSGS flipped RUMORED -> COMPLETED. Vote 2025-06-10 (Item 5.07): For 50,880,312 / Against 10,204,353 / Abstain 257,218. Effective 2025-06-10. Sector corrected to Consumer Discretionary (was Communication Services). Reclassified bucket B (pre-SB29 wave).
[2026-04-28] Phase 4I: replaced Google-search IR fallback with direct URL https://investor.msgsports.com/
[2026-04-28] Phase 4M: backfilled announcement_date_iso = 2025-05-08 (approximate PRE 14A filing; needs EDGAR confirmation). Phase 4J set meeting and effective dates only.
[2026-04-28] Phase 4N: synthesized event_study_announcement_json from existing scalar CAR cells (phase4a_v2 join). Reviewer can extend with multi-spec analysis.
[2026-04-28] Phase 4Q: cleared stale RUMORED_NO_FILING labels. Vote 2025-06-10 verified (For 50,880,312 / Against 10,204,353 / Abstain 257,218); source_confidence -> VERIFIED_VOTE; audit_status -> VERIFIED. [2026-04-28] phase5c: vote source 8-K 0001193125-25-139151 (2025-06-11, Δ=1d) applied from EDGAR pull (status=AUTO_RESOLVED) [2026-04-28] phase5c: vote source 8-K 0001193125-25-139151 (2025-06-11, Δ=1d) applied from EDGAR pull (status=AUTO_RESOLVED) [2026-04-29] phase5r: bucket 'B' -> 'B2' (DE->NV effective 2025-06-10 >= SB29 -> bucket B2) [2026-04-29] phase5w: comprehensive validation by external reviewer across tranches v3 (4-version full residual walk, 269 substantive answers across 52 firms, 0 bucket drifts vs v3.58)
[2026-04-29] v3.75: approval_basis='For ÷ (For + Against)' and approval_standard='majority of votes cast' confirmed by computed/stored pct match within 1pp. Pincite verification pending.
[2026-04-29] v3.75: dual-class voting structure same as sister-firm MSGE. Standard label provisional pending DEF 14A pincite review.
[2026-04-30] v3.84-rev5r: panel_eligibility correction per Gemini + Grok v2 audit (extended Fix 7 logic): MSGS panel_eligibility PANEL_B_pre_SB29 -> PANEL_B_post_SB29 (effective_date_iso 2025-06-10 is after TX SB 29 effective 2025-05-14, consistent with bucket post-SB29). Extended from MSGE Fix 7 per Gemini and Grok v2 audit cross-validation.
Related firms
← Back to The Reincorporation Tracker · Cohort event study · JSON for MSGS