Why this firm matters
Standard cohort firm (Completed). Included for breadth across destinations and sectors.
Vote outcome — reincorporation proposal
Vote totals not yet pulled. Awaiting EDGAR Item 5.07.
Event-study abnormal returns — announcement window
| Specification | Day-0 AR | Inference |
|---|---|---|
| Synthetic control (20-donor Information Technology peer pool)i | +5.65% | no inference |
| Market model (SPY benchmark)i | +3.63% | Patell-z p-value = 0.743 |
| Sector-augmented model (SPY + Nasdaq-100 (QQQ)) HEADLINEi | +4.12% | Patell-z p-value = 0.709 |
| Matched pair (vs MSFT, market-model-adjusted)i | +5.61% | two-sided p-value = 0.612 |
| Raw differential vs MSFTi | +5.82% | no inference |
Three independent diagnostics that interrogate the headline estimate from different angles. All three pointing the same way = high confidence in the result.
- Pre-event drift check: the firm's daily abnormal return drifted by +0.0121% per day in the pre-event window (p = 0.239). no detectable pre-event drift ✓. — A near-zero slope means the pre-event period was stable, so the day-0 reaction is not contamination from a pre-existing trend.
- Donor co-movement check: 3 of 20 peer firms moved in the same direction as the treated firm on the event day (binomial p = 0.0026). — A high concordance means the day was driven by industry-wide news rather than something firm-specific. A low concordance means the firm moved differently from peers (potential firm-specific signal).
- Synthetic-control fit quality: pre-event correlation between the firm and its synthetic twin = -0.243 (weak tracking — interpret with caution); R² = -41.626 (fraction of pre-event variance explained); Durbin-Watson = 1.99 (no autocorrelation). — Higher correlation + higher R² + Durbin-Watson near 2 means the synthetic peer was a good match before the event, so the post-event gap is interpretable.
Event-study abnormal returns — vote window
| Specification | Day-0 AR | Inference |
|---|---|---|
| Market model (SPY benchmark) HEADLINEi | +2.79% | Patell-z p-value = 0.789 |
Long-run abnormal returns & pooled estimates
Buy-and-hold abnormal returns (BHAR)
| Horizon & benchmark | BHAR | Inference |
|---|---|---|
| 1 month vs S&P 500 | -30.07% | Patell-z = -0.04 · p = 0.970 · n = 21 days |
| 1 month vs sector ETF (XLK) | -31.53% | Patell-z = -0.04 · p = 0.970 · n = 21 days |
| 3 months vs S&P 500 | +25.86% | Patell-z = +1.35 · p = 0.177 · n = 63 days |
| 3 months vs sector ETF (XLK) | +28.65% | Patell-z = +1.35 · p = 0.177 · n = 63 days |
Calendar-time portfolio alpha (CTE)
| Specification | Annualized alpha | Inference |
|---|---|---|
| Calendar-time portfolio alpha vs S&P 500 | -67.62%/yr | t = -0.36 · p = 0.720 · n = 105 days · Newey-West HAC SE (lag=5) |
| Calendar-time portfolio alpha vs sector ETF | -72.45%/yr | t = -0.41 · p = 0.679 · n = 105 days · Newey-West HAC SE (lag=5) |
Cohort-level robustness battery
Heckman two-step selection correction (controlled-vs-widely-held)
Cohort ATE = +0.94% (SE = 7.06%, n = 2395) after correcting for controller-status selection (inverse Mills ratio = -0.062).
Romano-Wolf step-down + Benjamini-Hochberg FDR (n = 47)
This firm: raw p = 0.709, Romano-Wolf adjusted p = 1.000, BH-FDR adjusted p = 0.966. Multiple-hypothesis correction is computed across the full cohort to control family-wise error rate at alpha = 0.05.
Pooled cohort BHAR (mover firms only)
BHAR_63d: mean = -5.60% (SE = 22.11%, n = 3, p = 0.499) · BHAR_126d: mean = +17.33% (SE = 41.17%, n = 3, p = 0.774)
See Cohort event study → for the full battery and forest plots.
Nevada Statutory Disclosures
Primary-source pending. Where badges read “PENDING VERIFICATION,” the firm-specific adoption posture (e.g., charter carve-outs to NRS § 78.138, opt-outs from NRS §§ 78.378–3793 or 78.411–444) has not yet been extracted from the firm’s amended-and-restated articles or proxy materials. The presence of a Nevada incorporation alone does not establish adoption of every provision; opt-outs are charter-level facts.
Source filings
- IR — https://investor.algorhythmholdings.com/
- EDGAR — https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000923601&type=&dateb=&owner=include&count=40
- Proxy — https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000923601&type=DEF+14A&dateb=&owner=include&count=40
- 8-K Item 5.07 (vote) ·
0001493152-25-025167— filing →
Classification & audit trail
[2026-04-28] Phase 4I: replaced Google-search IR fallback with direct URL https://investor.algorhythmholdings.com/
[2026-04-28] Phase 4N: synthesized event_study_announcement_json from existing scalar CAR cells (phase4a_v2 join). Reviewer can extend with multi-spec analysis.
[2026-04-28] Phase 4Q: audit_status PENDING_TRANSACTION -> VERIFIED. Effective date precedes meeting because move sequencing was written-consent + later annual-meeting ratification.
[2026-04-28] Phase 4T: vote_mechanism WRITTEN_CONSENT. Effective date precedes meeting date because move was approved by majority written consent prior to ratification at the annual meeting; this is mechanically valid under Delaware General Corporation Law Section 228. [2026-04-29] phase5g: WRITTEN_CONSENT — meeting_date_iso set to consent execution date 2025-11-20 (reviewer: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/923601/000149315225025167/form8-k.htm) [2026-04-29] phase5g: vote_source set acc=0001493152-25-025167 url=https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/923601/000149315225025167/form8-k.htm (reviewer: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/923601/000149315225025167/form8-k.htm) [2026-04-29] phase5g: WRITTEN_CONSENT — meeting_date_iso set to consent execution date 2025-11-20 (reviewer: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/923601/000149315225025167/form8-k.htm) [2026-04-29] phase5g: vote_source set acc=0001493152-25-025167 url=https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/923601/000149315225025167/form8-k.htm (reviewer: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/923601/000149315225025167/form8-k.htm) [2026-04-29] phase5r: bucket 'D' -> 'B2' (DE->NV effective 2025-11-26 >= SB29 -> bucket B2) [2026-04-29] phase5w: comprehensive validation by external reviewer across tranches v3 (4-version full residual walk, 269 substantive answers across 52 firms, 0 bucket drifts vs v3.58)
[2026-04-29] v3.75: written-consent transaction; approval_pct NULL by design per protocol §3.7. Standard derived from DGCL §228. Per-firm consent threshold pincite pending PRE 14C / 8-K review.
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