Why this firm matters
Standard cohort firm (Completed). Included for breadth across destinations and sectors.
Vote outcome — reincorporation proposal
Vote totals not yet pulled. Awaiting EDGAR Item 5.07.
Event-study abnormal returns — announcement window
| Specification | Day-0 AR | Inference |
|---|---|---|
| Synthetic control (14-donor Communication Services peer pool)i | -2.16% | no inference |
| Market model (SPY benchmark)i | -1.82% | Patell-z p-value = 0.498 |
| Sector-augmented model (SPY + Communication Services ETF (XLC)) HEADLINEi | -1.81% | Patell-z p-value = 0.497 |
| Matched pair (vs META, market-model-adjusted)i | -2.73% | two-sided p-value = 0.384 |
| Raw differential vs METAi | -3.15% | no inference |
Three independent diagnostics that interrogate the headline estimate from different angles. All three pointing the same way = high confidence in the result.
- Pre-event drift check: the firm's daily abnormal return drifted by -0.0037% per day in the pre-event window (p = 0.185). no detectable pre-event drift ✓. — A near-zero slope means the pre-event period was stable, so the day-0 reaction is not contamination from a pre-existing trend.
- Donor co-movement check: 13 of 14 peer firms moved in the same direction as the treated firm on the event day (binomial p = 0.0018). — A high concordance means the day was driven by industry-wide news rather than something firm-specific. A low concordance means the firm moved differently from peers (potential firm-specific signal).
- Synthetic-control fit quality: pre-event correlation between the firm and its synthetic twin = 0.033 (weak tracking — interpret with caution); R² = -4.133 (fraction of pre-event variance explained); Durbin-Watson = 2.09 (no autocorrelation). — Higher correlation + higher R² + Durbin-Watson near 2 means the synthetic peer was a good match before the event, so the post-event gap is interpretable.
Event-study abnormal returns — vote window
| Specification | Day-0 AR | Inference |
|---|---|---|
| Market model (SPY benchmark) HEADLINEi | +1.67% | Patell-z p-value = 0.550 |
Long-run abnormal returns & pooled estimates
Buy-and-hold abnormal returns (BHAR)
| Horizon & benchmark | BHAR | Inference |
|---|---|---|
| 1 month vs S&P 500 | +10.57% | Patell-z = +0.75 · p = 0.454 · n = 21 days |
| 1 month vs sector ETF (XLC) | +10.95% | Patell-z = +0.75 · p = 0.454 · n = 21 days |
| 3 months vs S&P 500 | +21.53% | Patell-z = +0.95 · p = 0.340 · n = 63 days |
| 3 months vs sector ETF (XLC) | +18.72% | Patell-z = +0.95 · p = 0.340 · n = 63 days |
| 6 months vs S&P 500 | +105.63% *** | Patell-z = +2.34 · p = 0.019 · n = 126 days |
| 6 months vs sector ETF (XLC) | +107.95% *** | Patell-z = +2.34 · p = 0.019 · n = 126 days |
Calendar-time portfolio alpha (CTE)
| Specification | Annualized alpha | Inference |
|---|---|---|
| Calendar-time portfolio alpha vs S&P 500 | +216.60%/yr *** | t = +2.47 · p = 0.014 · n = 226 days · Newey-West HAC SE (lag=5) |
| Calendar-time portfolio alpha vs sector ETF | +263.23%/yr *** | t = +2.82 · p = 0.005 · n = 226 days · Newey-West HAC SE (lag=5) |
Cohort-level robustness battery
Heckman two-step selection correction (controlled-vs-widely-held)
Cohort ATE = +0.94% (SE = 7.06%, n = 2395) after correcting for controller-status selection (inverse Mills ratio = -0.062).
Romano-Wolf step-down + Benjamini-Hochberg FDR (n = 47)
This firm: raw p = 0.497, Romano-Wolf adjusted p = 1.000, BH-FDR adjusted p = 0.966. Multiple-hypothesis correction is computed across the full cohort to control family-wise error rate at alpha = 0.05.
Pooled cohort BHAR (mover firms only)
BHAR_63d: mean = -5.60% (SE = 22.11%, n = 3, p = 0.499) · BHAR_126d: mean = +17.33% (SE = 41.17%, n = 3, p = 0.774)
See Cohort event study → for the full battery and forest plots.
Nevada Statutory Disclosures
Primary-source pending. Where badges read “PENDING VERIFICATION,” the firm-specific adoption posture (e.g., charter carve-outs to NRS § 78.138, opt-outs from NRS §§ 78.378–3793 or 78.411–444) has not yet been extracted from the firm’s amended-and-restated articles or proxy materials. The presence of a Nevada incorporation alone does not establish adoption of every provision; opt-outs are charter-level facts.
Source filings
- IR — https://investor.sphereentertainmentco.com/
- EDGAR — https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001795250&type=&dateb=&owner=include&count=40
- Proxy — https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001795250&type=DEF+14A&dateb=&owner=include&count=40
- 8-K Item 5.07 (vote) ·
0001193125-25-135929— filing →
Classification & audit trail
Phase 3F vote-result inferred APPROVED from status=COMPLETED + populated eff date (2025-06-05). Original vote_result was 'SCHEDULED'. Verify with 8-K if uncertain.
[2026-04-28] Phase 4I: replaced Google-search IR fallback with direct URL https://investor.sphereentertainmentco.com/
[2026-04-28] Phase 4K: corrected year error (announcement 2026-04-02 -> 2025-04-08). Annual meeting 2025-06-04; eff 2025-06-05. Dolan-cluster firm (with MSGE/MSGS/AMCX). Mcap at effective ~$1.3B.
[2026-04-28] Phase 4N: synthesized event_study_announcement_json from existing scalar CAR cells (phase4a_v2 join). Reviewer can extend with multi-spec analysis.
[2026-04-28] Phase 4Q: audit_status PENDING_TRANSACTION -> VERIFIED. Effective 2025-06-05; Dolan-cluster firm with MSGE/MSGS/AMCX. [2026-04-28] phase5c: vote source 8-K 0001193125-25-135929 (2025-06-05, Δ=1d) applied from EDGAR pull (status=AUTO_RESOLVED) [2026-04-28] phase5c: vote source 8-K 0001193125-25-135929 (2025-06-05, Δ=1d) applied from EDGAR pull (status=AUTO_RESOLVED) [2026-04-29] phase5r: bucket 'D' -> 'B2' (DE->NV effective 2025-06-05 >= SB29 -> bucket B2) [2026-04-29] phase5w: comprehensive validation by external reviewer across tranches v3 (4-version full residual walk, 269 substantive answers across 52 firms, 0 bucket drifts vs v3.58)
[2026-04-29] v3.75: VERIFIED — DGCL §266 conversion at annual meeting June 4, 2025. Dolan-family-controlled. Per Glass Lewis 2025 DExit report: of Dolan-controlled DExit firms, MSGE and SPHR received majority support from unaffiliated shareholders. Item 5.07 pincite still pending.
[2026-04-30] v3.84-rev5r-patch: SPHR panel letter correction (PANEL_A -> PANEL_B): panel_eligibility PANEL_A_post_SB29 -> PANEL_B_post_SB29. SPHR has panel_a_tx_incumbent=0 and panel_b_dexit_mover=1; it is a Delaware-to-Nevada redomestication (not a Texas incumbent), so the panel letter should be B. Pre/post-SB29 timing was already correct. Per Gemini and Grok v2 audit cross-validation.
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