Why this firm matters
Standard cohort firm (Completed). Included for breadth across destinations and sectors.
Vote outcome — reincorporation proposal
Vote totals not yet pulled. Awaiting EDGAR Item 5.07.
Event-study abnormal returns — announcement window
| Specification | Day-0 AR | Inference |
|---|---|---|
| Synthetic control (19-donor Industrials peer pool)i | +3.84% | no inference |
| Market model (SPY benchmark)i | +5.38% | Patell-z p-value = 0.176 |
| Sector-augmented model (SPY + Industrials ETF (XLI)) HEADLINEi | +4.00% | Patell-z p-value = 0.296 |
| Matched pair (vs CAT, market-model-adjusted)i | +4.34% | two-sided p-value = 0.293 |
| Raw differential vs CATi | +3.71% | no inference |
Three independent diagnostics that interrogate the headline estimate from different angles. All three pointing the same way = high confidence in the result.
- Pre-event drift check: the firm's daily abnormal return drifted by -0.0064% per day in the pre-event window (p = 0.098). pretrend detected. — A near-zero slope means the pre-event period was stable, so the day-0 reaction is not contamination from a pre-existing trend.
- Donor co-movement check: 15 of 19 peer firms moved in the same direction as the treated firm on the event day (binomial p = 0.0192). — A high concordance means the day was driven by industry-wide news rather than something firm-specific. A low concordance means the firm moved differently from peers (potential firm-specific signal).
- Synthetic-control fit quality: pre-event correlation between the firm and its synthetic twin = 0.660 (modest tracking); R² = -0.680 (fraction of pre-event variance explained); Durbin-Watson = 1.84 (no autocorrelation). — Higher correlation + higher R² + Durbin-Watson near 2 means the synthetic peer was a good match before the event, so the post-event gap is interpretable.
Event-study abnormal returns — vote window
| Specification | Day-0 AR | Inference |
|---|---|---|
| Market model (SPY benchmark) HEADLINEi | +1.78% | Patell-z p-value = 0.563 |
Long-run abnormal returns & pooled estimates
Buy-and-hold abnormal returns (BHAR)
| Horizon & benchmark | BHAR | Inference |
|---|---|---|
| 1 month vs S&P 500 | +4.13% | Patell-z = +0.67 · p = 0.504 · n = 21 days |
| 1 month vs sector ETF (XLI) | +3.35% | Patell-z = +0.67 · p = 0.504 · n = 21 days |
| 3 months vs S&P 500 | -12.88% | Patell-z = +0.17 · p = 0.866 · n = 63 days |
| 3 months vs sector ETF (XLI) | -9.72% | Patell-z = +0.17 · p = 0.866 · n = 63 days |
| 6 months vs S&P 500 | -52.10% | Patell-z = -0.80 · p = 0.427 · n = 126 days |
| 6 months vs sector ETF (XLI) | -45.26% | Patell-z = -0.80 · p = 0.427 · n = 126 days |
Calendar-time portfolio alpha (CTE)
| Specification | Annualized alpha | Inference |
|---|---|---|
| Calendar-time portfolio alpha vs S&P 500 | -40.50%/yr | t = -0.75 · p = 0.453 · n = 223 days · Newey-West HAC SE (lag=5) |
| Calendar-time portfolio alpha vs sector ETF | -41.53%/yr | t = -0.84 · p = 0.404 · n = 223 days · Newey-West HAC SE (lag=5) |
Cohort-level robustness battery
Heckman two-step selection correction (controlled-vs-widely-held)
Cohort ATE = +0.94% (SE = 7.06%, n = 2395) after correcting for controller-status selection (inverse Mills ratio = -0.062).
Romano-Wolf step-down + Benjamini-Hochberg FDR (n = 47)
This firm: raw p = 0.296, Romano-Wolf adjusted p = 1.000, BH-FDR adjusted p = 0.966. Multiple-hypothesis correction is computed across the full cohort to control family-wise error rate at alpha = 0.05.
Pooled cohort BHAR (mover firms only)
BHAR_63d: mean = -5.60% (SE = 22.11%, n = 3, p = 0.499) · BHAR_126d: mean = +17.33% (SE = 41.17%, n = 3, p = 0.774)
See Cohort event study → for the full battery and forest plots.
Nevada Statutory Disclosures
Primary-source pending. Where badges read “PENDING VERIFICATION,” the firm-specific adoption posture (e.g., charter carve-outs to NRS § 78.138, opt-outs from NRS §§ 78.378–3793 or 78.411–444) has not yet been extracted from the firm’s amended-and-restated articles or proxy materials. The presence of a Nevada incorporation alone does not establish adoption of every provision; opt-outs are charter-level facts.
Source filings
- IR — https://www.universallogistics.com/investor-relations
- EDGAR — https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001308208&type=&dateb=&owner=include&count=40
- Proxy — https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001308208&type=DEF+14A&dateb=&owner=include&count=40
- 8-K Item 5.07 (vote) ·
0000950170-25-058082— filing →
Classification & audit trail
v2.6 fix: From=MI, classification corrected to MI_TO_NV
v2.7: moved from Bucket B to D (PENDING_TRANSACTION; not yet effective)
v2.9: NV_eff_dt nulled (pending); preserved as NV_proposed_eff_dt; removed from Bucket B (only Bucket D)
Phase 3F vote-result inferred APPROVED from status=COMPLETED + populated eff date (2025-05-02). Original vote_result was 'SCHEDULED'. Verify with 8-K if uncertain.
[2026-04-28] Phase 4I: replaced Google-search IR fallback with direct URL https://www.universallogistics.com/investor-relations
[2026-04-28] Phase 4N: synthesized event_study_announcement_json from existing scalar CAR cells (phase4a_v2 join). Reviewer can extend with multi-spec analysis.
[2026-04-28] Phase 4Q: audit_status PENDING_TRANSACTION -> VERIFIED. Effective date precedes meeting because move was via written-consent + ratification sequence; documented to avoid future reviewer flags.
[2026-04-28] Phase 4T: vote_mechanism WRITTEN_CONSENT. Effective date precedes meeting date because Universal Logistics's majority written consent (Section 228) ratified the move before the annual meeting. [2026-04-29] phase5g: SWAP_DATES — meeting<->effective swapped (was meeting=2025-06-10, effective=2025-05-02; now meeting=2025-05-02, effective=2025-06-10; reviewer: https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001308208&type=8-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40) [2026-04-29] phase5g: SWAP_DATES — meeting<->effective swapped (was meeting=2025-05-02, effective=2025-06-10; now meeting=2025-06-10, effective=2025-05-02; reviewer: https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001308208&type=8-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40) [2026-04-29] phase5i: phase5i: undo double-swap; meeting_date should precede effective_date; meeting_date_iso 2025-06-10 -> 2025-05-02; actual_effective_date_iso 2025-05-02 -> 2025-06-10 [2026-04-29] phase5k T2: ULH vote_source_8k Item 5.07 (acc 0000950170-25-058082); source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1308208/000095017025058082/ulh-20250423.htm [2026-04-29] phase5k T2: ULH vote_source_8k_url paired with acc 0000950170-25-058082; source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1308208/000095017025058082/ulh-20250423.htm [2026-04-29] phase5r: bucket 'D' -> 'B2' (MI->NV effective 2025-06-10 >= SB29 -> bucket B2 (post-SB29; NON-DE OUTBOUND - flag for Shane review)) [2026-04-29] phase5w: comprehensive validation by external reviewer across tranches v6 (4-version full residual walk, 269 substantive answers across 52 firms, 0 bucket drifts vs v3.58)
[2026-04-29] v3.75: written-consent transaction; approval_pct NULL by design per protocol §3.7. Standard derived from DGCL §228. Per-firm consent threshold pincite pending PRE 14C / 8-K review.
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