⚠ AUDIT IN PROGRESS  ·  This firm's data is being independently verified across three tiers (automated · project lead · external reviewer) per SMU CGI audit framework. Not yet citable in external research until AUDIT-CLEARED.

The evidence · per-firm event-study battery

Did the market price the Texas move?

Bottom line. Dillard's per-firm event-study battery is pending the canonical run. Canonical event date is 2025-07-22 — one trading day after the July 21, 2025 announcement 8-K filed after market close (20:16 ET), per the project's pre-registered after-close convention. The methodology framework is invariant; the data is firm-specific. See /methodology.

The pre-registered event-date convention

Dillard's announcement 8-K was filed July 21, 2025 at 20:16 ET — after market close. The project's pre-registration assigns the canonical event date T0 to the next trading day (July 22, 2025) so that intraday price reaction to after-close announcements is captured in Day-0 windows. The convention is documented in 06_PREREGISTRATION/ and applies uniformly across the cohort.

The nine figures (pending per-firm run)

  1. Figure 1 — Peer comparison. Day-0 AR for Dillard's vs department-store and broad-line retail peers (Nordstrom, Macy's, Kohl's, Ross, TJX, Burlington). [PENDING]
  2. Figure 2 — Synthetic-control gap. ADH synthetic Dillard's against department-store donor pool. [PENDING]
  3. Figure 3 — Cross-firm placebo. 21-firm placebo universe; Dillard's rank. [PENDING]
  4. Figure 4 — In-time placebo. 100 pseudo-event dates from the pre-window. [PENDING]
  5. Figure 5 — Co-movement. Dillard's returns vs cohort over [T−30, T+30]. [PENDING]
  6. Figure 6 — Donor weights. SLSQP-simplex weights. [PENDING]
  7. Figure 7 — Three benchmarks. Synthetic + matched pair + FF6 with bounded-null band. [PENDING]
  8. Figure 8 — Bayesian posterior. 95% credible interval; P(eff < −2pp). [PENDING]
  9. Figure 9 — TSR. Total shareholder return from announcement through current. [PENDING]

The 18-cell core battery (pending per-firm run)

Three benchmarks × six windows. Dillard's results: [DATA PENDING: per-firm run]. Department-store sector context: the announcement coincided with a soft Q2 2025 results-of-operations narrative across the sector; the stress tests on /stress_tests separate redomiciliation-specific price movement from sector-wide retailer dispersion that quarter.

Primary sources

Dillard's daily price data

  • S&P Capital IQ Public Pricing — ticker Dillard's, daily adjusted close, T−260 through T+10 around 2025-07-22
  • CRSP via WRDS (academic cross-check)
  • Ken French Data Library (FF5 + UMD)

Replication scripts in /replication.