Why this firm matters
Standard cohort firm (Completed). Included for breadth across destinations and sectors.
Vote outcome — reincorporation proposal
Vote totals not yet pulled. Awaiting EDGAR Item 5.07.
Event-study abnormal returns — announcement window
| Specification | Day-0 AR | Inference |
|---|---|---|
| Synthetic control (19-donor Consumer Discretionary peer pool)i | -11.69% | no inference |
| Market model (SPY benchmark)i | -12.33% | Patell-z p-value = 0.413 |
| Sector-augmented model (SPY + Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY)) HEADLINEi | -11.74% | Patell-z p-value = 0.434 |
| Matched pair (vs ABNB, market-model-adjusted)i | -11.41% | two-sided p-value = 0.449 |
| Raw differential vs ABNBi | -11.88% | no inference |
Three independent diagnostics that interrogate the headline estimate from different angles. All three pointing the same way = high confidence in the result.
- Pre-event drift check: the firm's daily abnormal return drifted by -0.0051% per day in the pre-event window (p = 0.718). no detectable pre-event drift ✓. — A near-zero slope means the pre-event period was stable, so the day-0 reaction is not contamination from a pre-existing trend.
- Donor co-movement check: 16 of 19 peer firms moved in the same direction as the treated firm on the event day (binomial p = 0.0044). — A high concordance means the day was driven by industry-wide news rather than something firm-specific. A low concordance means the firm moved differently from peers (potential firm-specific signal).
- Synthetic-control fit quality: pre-event correlation between the firm and its synthetic twin = -0.461 (weak tracking — interpret with caution); R² = -3.444 (fraction of pre-event variance explained); Durbin-Watson = 2.43 (no autocorrelation). — Higher correlation + higher R² + Durbin-Watson near 2 means the synthetic peer was a good match before the event, so the post-event gap is interpretable.
Event-study abnormal returns — vote window
| Specification | Day-0 AR | Inference |
|---|---|---|
| Market model (SPY benchmark) HEADLINEi | -11.22% | Patell-z p-value = 0.475 |
Long-run abnormal returns & pooled estimates
| Specification | CAR / BHAR | Details |
|---|---|---|
| Buy-and-hold abnormal return — 3 monthi | -49.00% | Fama-French 5-factor + momentum |
*** p < 0.05 · * p < 0.10 · CAR = cumulative abnormal return; BHAR = buy-and-hold abnormal return; FFC6 = Fama-French five-factor + momentum (UMD)
Cohort-level robustness battery
Heckman two-step selection correction (controlled-vs-widely-held)
Cohort ATE = +0.94% (SE = 7.06%, n = 2395) after correcting for controller-status selection (inverse Mills ratio = -0.062).
Romano-Wolf step-down + Benjamini-Hochberg FDR (n = 47)
This firm: raw p = 0.434, Romano-Wolf adjusted p = 1.000, BH-FDR adjusted p = 0.966. Multiple-hypothesis correction is computed across the full cohort to control family-wise error rate at alpha = 0.05.
Pooled cohort BHAR (mover firms only)
BHAR_63d: mean = -5.60% (SE = 22.11%, n = 3, p = 0.499) · BHAR_126d: mean = +17.33% (SE = 41.17%, n = 3, p = 0.774)
See Cohort event study → for the full battery and forest plots.
Nevada Statutory Disclosures
Primary-source pending. Where badges read “PENDING VERIFICATION,” the firm-specific adoption posture (e.g., charter carve-outs to NRS § 78.138, opt-outs from NRS §§ 78.378–3793 or 78.411–444) has not yet been extracted from the firm’s amended-and-restated articles or proxy materials. The presence of a Nevada incorporation alone does not establish adoption of every provision; opt-outs are charter-level facts.
Source filings
- IR — https://www.twinveeboats.com/investors
- EDGAR — https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001855509&type=&dateb=&owner=include&count=40
- Proxy — https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001855509&type=DEF+14A&dateb=&owner=include&count=40
- 8-K Item 5.07 (vote) ·
0001731122-26-000632— filing →
Classification & audit trail
Phase 2 EDGAR verification 2026-04-28: DEF 14A 2025-10-23 accession 0001731122-25-001427. Reclassified from A/PANEL_E_DE_baseline -> D/PANEL_A_post_SB29.
Phase 2.6 correction 2026-04-27: Phase 2.5 had set bucket_class=D (pending), but legacy NV_eff_dt / TX_eff_dt columns already held completed effective dates. Corrected bucket_class=C (post-SB29 completed mover). Set Panel_A_reincorporator_flag=1, Panel_A_completed_effective_flag=1, bucket_C_post_SB29_DExit=1, and zeroed out bucket_A / bucket_Z / Panel_A_unverified flags.
[2026-04-28] Phase 4I: replaced Google-search IR fallback with direct URL https://www.twinveeboats.com/investors
[2026-04-28] Phase 4K: VEEE Dec 2025 vote approved by votes-cast majority (For 437,309 / Against 88,498) but FAILED Delaware outstanding-shares threshold due to broker non-votes (661,214). Per Business Law Prof Blog, as of Jan 2026 VEEE remained a DE corporation. Tracker's 2026-04-13 effective date appears to be a successful cure re-vote — verify via EDGAR. Second TCBI-style threshold case in cohort. [2026-04-29] phase5j: NEEDS_VOTE_SOURCE -- vote_result=APPROVED but vote_source_8k_accession and vote_source_8k_url empty after multi-round EDGAR pulls; reason: DEF 14A 2025-10-23 (acc 0001731122-25-001427) located but no follow-on Item 5.07 8-K with vote totals on file after multi-round reviewer search; downgrade A8_vote_source_missing FAIL->WARN per Shane's 2026-04-28 placeholder directive [2026-04-29] phase5r: bucket 'C' -> 'B2' (DE->NV effective 2026-04-13 >= SB29 -> bucket B2) [2026-04-29] phase5w: comprehensive validation by external reviewer across tranches v3 (4-version full residual walk, 269 substantive answers across 52 firms, 0 bucket drifts vs v3.58)
[2026-04-29] v3.75: VERIFIED — Twin Vee PowerCats (NOT VivoPower). DGCL §266 conversion from Delaware to Nevada. Approved at 2025 annual meeting December 4, 2025. Effective April 10, 2026. Item 5.07 tally + exact threshold pincite pending.
v3.84-rev3 SEVERE date correction: announcement_date_iso 2026-02-05 was off by 3.5 months. Per reviewer audit: VEEE DEF 14A filed 2025-10-23; annual meeting (vote) 2025-12-04; effective 2026-04-10. The data.json date appears to have been keyed from the effective-date proximity rather than from the actual proxy filing. The −12.33% Day-0 AR previously computed at 2026-02-05 was measuring NOISE on a random Friday in February, not the reincorporation announcement. Meeting_date_iso also corrected from 2026-04-08 → 2025-12-04.
v3.84-rev5c [2026-04-30] promoted to HIGH date_quality_flag per v3.84-rev3 EDGAR-verified primary-source date correction; primary-source EDGAR confirmation. [2026-05-24] CIK correction sweep: first_sec_disclosure_url was using CIK 0001839419 (wrong) — corrected to canonical CIK 0001855509 per data.json `cik` field. announcement_accession_verified flipped Y->N pending re-verification.
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