Zion Oil & Gas, Inc. (ZNOG) — Reincorporation detail

Announcement

2025-03-28

First SEC disclosure

Meeting / Vote

2025-06-04

COMPLETED

Effective

2025-06-11

Legal effective date

Market Cap

$651M

At announcement

Why this firm matters

Standard cohort firm (Completed). Included for breadth across destinations and sectors.

Controller & ownership

Diffuse / non-controlledMicro Cap No 5Pct Holders Surfaced

Ownership concentration data not yet documented for this firm.

Source: ZNOG DEF 14A 2026-04-10 + PRE 14A 2025-03-28 — WebSearch surfaced no 5%+ beneficial owners; OTCQX micro-cap, retail-heavy; needs Tier-3 manual EDGAR inspection of Principal Stockholders table to confirm absence of 5%+ holders

Vote outcome — reincorporation proposal

Approval standard: majority of the voting power of the outstanding stock entitled to vote (DGCL §266 conversion) — provisional pending exact 8-K Item 5.07 pincite. Meeting type: annual.

Vote totals not yet pulled. Awaiting EDGAR Item 5.07.

Event-study abnormal returns — announcement window

Returns around the announcement date.

Event date: 2025-09-22 · Estimation window: 2024-10-04 to 2025-09-19 (240 days)

Specification	Day-0 AR	Inference
Synthetic control (21-donor Energy peer pool)i	-5.39%	no inference
Market model (SPY benchmark)i	-6.50%	Patell-z p-value = 0.529
Sector-augmented model (SPY + Brent crude oil) HEADLINEi	-6.49%	Patell-z p-value = 0.530
Matched pair (vs WMB, market-model-adjusted)i	-6.20%	two-sided p-value = 0.551
Raw differential vs WMBi	-5.35%	no inference

Robustness checks — does the headline result hold up?

Three independent diagnostics that interrogate the headline estimate from different angles. All three pointing the same way = high confidence in the result.

Pre-event drift check: the firm's daily abnormal return drifted by -0.0175% per day in the pre-event window (p = 0.066). pretrend detected. — A near-zero slope means the pre-event period was stable, so the day-0 reaction is not contamination from a pre-existing trend.
Donor co-movement check: 10 of 21 peer firms moved in the same direction as the treated firm on the event day (binomial p = 1.0000). — A high concordance means the day was driven by industry-wide news rather than something firm-specific. A low concordance means the firm moved differently from peers (potential firm-specific signal).
Synthetic-control fit quality: pre-event correlation between the firm and its synthetic twin = 0.621 (modest tracking); RÂ² = -3.895 (fraction of pre-event variance explained); Durbin-Watson = 2.22 (no autocorrelation). — Higher correlation + higher RÂ² + Durbin-Watson near 2 means the synthetic peer was a good match before the event, so the post-event gap is interpretable.

Event-study abnormal returns — vote window

Returns around the shareholder-vote (or written-consent) date.

Event date: 2025-12-01 · T0 source: actual_effective_date_iso · Estimation window: trailing 240 days; 240 valid after NaN drop

Specification	Day-0 AR	Inference
Market model (SPY benchmark) HEADLINEi	-0.45%	Patell-z p-value = 0.954

Long-run abnormal returns & pooled estimates

Buy-and-hold abnormal returns (1 / 3 / 6 / 12 months) and calendar-time portfolio alpha (CTE) post-effective.

Effective date: 2025-12-01 · n_post = 103 days

Buy-and-hold abnormal returns (BHAR)

Horizon & benchmark	BHAR	Inference
1 month vs S&P 500	+28.87%	Patell-z = +0.36 · p = 0.719 · n = 21 days
1 month vs sector ETF (XLE)	+30.66%	Patell-z = +0.36 · p = 0.719 · n = 21 days
3 months vs S&P 500	+134.28%	Patell-z = +0.74 · p = 0.460 · n = 63 days
3 months vs sector ETF (XLE)	+111.18%	Patell-z = +0.74 · p = 0.460 · n = 63 days

Calendar-time portfolio alpha (CTE)

Specification	Annualized alpha	Inference
Calendar-time portfolio alpha vs S&P 500	+688.83%/yr ^*	t = +1.84 · p = 0.066 · n = 103 days · Newey-West HAC SE (lag=5)
Calendar-time portfolio alpha vs sector ETF	+624.01%/yr ^*	t = +1.76 · p = 0.079 · n = 103 days · Newey-West HAC SE (lag=5)

Cohort-level robustness battery

Heckman selection-corrected ATE · Romano-Wolf step-down + BH FDR · pooled BHAR. This firm's reading is shown in context of the full cohort.

Heckman two-step selection correction (controlled-vs-widely-held)

Cohort ATE = +0.94% (SE = 7.06%, n = 2395) after correcting for controller-status selection (inverse Mills ratio = -0.062).

Romano-Wolf step-down + Benjamini-Hochberg FDR (n = 47)

This firm: raw p = 0.530, Romano-Wolf adjusted p = 1.000, BH-FDR adjusted p = 0.966. Multiple-hypothesis correction is computed across the full cohort to control family-wise error rate at alpha = 0.05.

Pooled cohort BHAR (mover firms only)

BHAR_63d: mean = -5.60% (SE = 22.11%, n = 3, p = 0.499) · BHAR_126d: mean = +17.33% (SE = 41.17%, n = 3, p = 0.774)

See Cohort event study → for the full battery and forest plots.

Texas Statutory Adoptions

Texas opt-in statutory regimes available to Texas-incorporated public companies. Each requires a charter or bylaw amendment with proxy notice. Both are independently elected.

SB 29 — TBOC §21.552

Derivative-action 3% ownership threshold (effective 2025-05-14, post-Tornetta v. Musk).

â—‹ NOT ADOPTED

SB 1057 — TBOC §21.373

Shareholder-proposal threshold: lesser of $1M market value or 3% of voting shares, 6-month hold, 67% solicit (effective 2025-09-01). Director nominations and procedural resolutions are exempt. Legal status: vulnerable to challenge under the Internal Affairs Doctrine and dormant Commerce Clause; SEC Rule 14a-8(i)(1) permits state-law exclusion, so §21.373 may operate through Rule 14a-8 rather than face direct preemption. No court ruling has issued. Firms appear to be in a wait-and-see posture pending legal clarity.

PENDING VERIFICATION

Adoption is opt-in. A "No" or "Pending" status means the firm has not (yet) elected into the regime — it does not mean the firm is non-compliant. Adoption requires a charter/bylaw amendment disclosed via 8-K Item 5.03.

Source filings

Primary-source documents on SEC EDGAR plus IR / search links.

IR — https://www.zionoil.com/investors
EDGAR — https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001131312&type=&dateb=&owner=include&count=40
Proxy — https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001131312&type=DEF+14A&dateb=&owner=include&count=40
First SEC disclosure · 0001437749-25-009798 — filing →

Classification & audit trail

Bucket

Panel eligibility

PANEL_A_post_SB29

Audit status

PATCHED_v6-rev69_2026-05-22_severe_date_correction_was_2025-12-01 | PATCHED_v6-rev77_2026-05-24_wave1b_audit_fixes: per firm_roster_audit_2026-05-24.md + batch summaries

Source confidence

VERIFIED_VOTE

Transaction status

COMPLETED

Audit notes

No primary-source EDGAR accession in v6 rev78; manual EDGAR pull required.
Phase 2 EDGAR verification 2026-04-28: DEF 14A 2026-04-09 accession 0001437749-26-011846. Reclassified from A/PANEL_E_DE_baseline -> D/PANEL_A_post_SB29.
Phase 2.6 correction 2026-04-27: Phase 2.5 had set bucket_class=D (pending), but legacy NV_eff_dt / TX_eff_dt columns already held completed effective dates. Corrected bucket_class=C (post-SB29 completed mover). Set Panel_A_reincorporator_flag=1, Panel_A_completed_effective_flag=1, bucket_C_post_SB29_DExit=1, and zeroed out bucket_A / bucket_Z / Panel_A_unverified flags.
Phase 3F vote-result inferred APPROVED from status=COMPLETED + populated eff date (2025-12-01). Original vote_result was 'SCHEDULED'. Verify with 8-K if uncertain.
[2026-04-28] Phase 4I: replaced Google-search IR fallback with direct URL https://www.zionoil.com/investors
[2026-04-28] Phase 4N: synthesized event_study_announcement_json from existing scalar CAR cells (phase4a_v2 join). Reviewer can extend with multi-spec analysis. [2026-04-29] phase5j: NEEDS_VOTE_SOURCE -- vote_result=APPROVED but vote_source_8k_accession and vote_source_8k_url empty after multi-round EDGAR pulls; reason: second-pass reviewer suggests vote was 2025-06-04 (not Nov 2025 as in dataset) but no verified accession provided; both date and citation pending; downgrade A8_vote_source_missing FAIL->WARN per Shane's 2026-04-28 placeholder directive [2026-04-29] phase5r: bucket 'C' -> 'B1' (DE->TX effective 2025-12-01 >= SB29 -> bucket B1) [2026-04-29] phase5w: comprehensive validation by external reviewer across tranches v3 (4-version full residual walk, 269 substantive answers across 52 firms, 0 bucket drifts vs v3.58)
[2026-04-29] v3.75: VERIFIED — Zion Oil & Gas. Annual meeting June 4, 2025 approved DE→TX redomestication via DGCL §266 conversion + authorized share increase from 1.2B to 1.6B. Item 5.07 tally + exact threshold pincite pending.
v3.84-rev3 SEVERE date correction: announcement_date_iso 2025-09-22 was off by ~6 months. Per reviewer audit: ZNOG PRE 14A filed 2025-03-28 (acc 0001437749-25-009798); DEF 14A 2025-04-10; annual meeting 2025-06-04 (vote passed 555.9M for / 6.2M against). Meeting_date_iso also corrected from 2025-11-24 → 2025-06-04. The −6.50% Day-0 AR previously computed at 2025-09-22 was measuring noise unrelated to the reincorporation.
v3.84-rev5c [2026-04-30] promoted to HIGH date_quality_flag per v3.84-rev3 EDGAR-verified primary-source date correction; primary-source EDGAR confirmation.